Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Background. Why are some states more generous in their distribution of social welfare benefits than others? While diffusion scholars have long been interested in “competitive federalism,” or the role that interstate competition plays in policy adoption, comparative welfare state scholars have tended to focus on the role that ideology and political economy factors play in determining state welfare expansion/retrenchment rather than geographic proximity. This study aims to bridge these two sets of literature to examine the predictors of social benefit generosity across US states that encompass both geographic and ideological predictors.

Methods. Using a composite index of four major safety-net programs (TANF, SNAP, Medicaid, Unemployment Insurance) with eligibility rules and benefit levels that vary by state between 1996-2012, we examine the predictors of state safety-net generosity in aggregate and across different programs. We explore the relative contribution of citizen ideology, state government ideology, spatial processes and race/ethnic composition on program generosity as of 2011. We also model whether the impact of ideology varies based on how large the margin of victory was theorizing that a large win margin will signal a stronger redistributive or retrenchment-oriented mandate.

Results. We find mixed evidence of spatial diffusion processes as well as mixed results in regards to the role of ideology and related political economy factors in predicting generosity. Overall, major predictors are differentially associated with generosity across different programs and major explanatory variables like race-ethnic heterogeneity and conservative state ideology are not consistently associated with lower generosity. This suggests that each program is governed by a different set of political logics. TANF, representing the quintessential cash assistance, means-tested welfare program appears to exemplify more predictable patterns in terms of diffusion and race-to-the-bottom features. However, in contrast with the race-to-the-bottom logic, progressive state governments are found to increase TANF generosity, but only under conditions of high competition.

Conclusions. We found considerable variation in predictors of states’ safety-net generosity programs with little support for state ideology and race-ethnic heterogeneity as reliable predictors of generosity in contrast with the wide political economy literature on this topic. However, when win margins are high, governments appear to take this as a mandate to implement their preferred policy objectives.

Implications for Policy or Practice. Understanding the political processes behind social policy expansion and retrenchment can assist policy advocates and practitioners in developing strategies to advance their preferred policy objectives.