Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

There has been much research conducted on the role that cultural values play in shaping policy preferences across a wide array of issues, with policy preferences being greatly influenced by the values held by an individual. Alternatively, increased policy-relevant knowledge is proposed to reduce the reliance on values in developing policy preferences, creating policies that are fact-based as opposed to policy driven. Importantly, an individual’s actual knowledge level is not always aligned with his or her actual knowledge level, creating situations in which individuals either accurately assess their knowledge on a policy issue, underestimate their knowledge (knowledge humility), or overestimate their knowledge (knowledge hubris). Utilizing a statewide survey distributed to a sample of policy elites in Oregon and Arkansas, this paper examines the origins of hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) policy preferences among local policy elites, focusing on the role of cultural value predispositions and the actual and perceived knowledge levels associated with fracking that policy elites hold. Findings indicate that cultural value predispositions consistently predict policy preferences, with the combination of actual and perceived knowledge levels individuals hold (i.e. knowledge hubris, knowledge humility, knowledge accuracy) impacting the role that cultural values play in shaping policy preferences. Actual knowledge levels rarely predict fracking policy preferences, whereas perceived knowledge levels consistently predict policy preferences. Overall, the results indicate that the cultural value predispositions and perceived knowledge levels held by local policy elites significantly impact fracking policy preferences, while actual knowledge levels do not. Implications for fracking policy and the policy-making process generally are discussed, particularly focusing on evidence-based policy-making.