Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

A recent nationally representative survey, conducted by Pew Research in 2017, found that almost half of working adults (ages 18-70) in the US expressed the need for leave to care for a seriously ill family member: 23% had taken leave of this kind during their employment tenure and 25% had not yet taken leave of this kind but believed they would need to do so in the future (Horowitz et al., 2017). The Pew survey also found that many members of the US workforce who need to take leave of this kind have been unable to do so.

Although there are no national provisions for paid family and medical leave in the US (the federal FMLA provides unpaid leave only), five states and the District of Columbia have enacted state paid family and medical leave laws that cover leave to care for a seriously ill family member as well as parental leave and leave for one’s own serious illness. A large and growing body of research has examined the impact of these laws on labor market and other outcomes for new parents who need leave to care for a newborn or an adopted/foster child, focusing in particular on California, whose first in the nation law was implemented in 2004. But there has been no research to date on the impact of these laws on labor market outcomes for older workers who are disproportionately likely to need leave to care for a seriously ill family member (in particular, a spouse or a parent).

This paper addresses that gap. We study the impact of California’s paid family and medical leave law on labor market outcomes of people age 45-64. Our first set of analyses uses descriptive data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) from 2011-2017. The ATUS results indicate that women in California who are 45 to 64 years old are more likely than their counterparts in other states to be in the labor force, employed, receive higher wages and earnings, and work more hours. Similarly, living in California is associated with older men’s increased labor force participation, higher wages and earnings, and longer hours. For older women, living in California is also related to a higher probability of being employed and providing elder care and that of being employed and providing care once a week or more. However, because the ATUS data are all post-law, we are unable to assess the extent to which these differences reflect the impact of the law or pre-existing differences.

Our second set of analyses uses data from the 2000-2009 waves of the American Community Survey (ACS) and a difference-in-difference-in-difference approach to analyze changes in the labor market outcomes of people aged 45-64 living in California before and after the law went into effect in 2004 to changes for similar age workers living in other states, as compared to changes for younger people age 25-44 in California and in other states. These ACS analyses are in progress.