Panel Paper: Selective Mortality and the Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Natural Disasters

Monday, July 29, 2019
40.S16 - Level -1 (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

*Names in bold indicate Presenter

Xing Xia, Yale University and Margaret Triyana, The University of Notre Dame


Early-life exposure to negative environmental shocks may increase mortality and have negative effects on human capital that persist into adulthood. We examine the effects of early-life exposure to environmental shocks of varying intensity on mortality and human capital outcomes in the Philippines. We exploit variations in the timing, geographic path, and intensity of typhoons. We analyze changes in both mortality and observed long-term outcomes after a sharp increase in post-disaster relief efforts in the 1960s, thereby illustrating the challenge in evaluating the effectiveness of post-disaster aid due to the paradox of mortality selection.

We find a strong negative relationship between mortality and long-term scarring effects. Before the increase in disaster relief efforts, mortality from in utero exposure to severe typhoons was 10 percent; survivors exhibited similar levels of human capital as the unaffected. After the increase in disaster relief, the mortality effects were mitigated; however, survivors exhibited lower human capital in the long term. These contrasts suggest that research on early-life shocks in developing countries should pay special attention to selective mortality.

The provision of resources in the aftermath of a natural disaster has long been the focus in policy making in many countries and our findings underscore the importance of such assistance. Our results suggest that Marcos’ disaster response policies in the late 1960s and 1970s were effective in lowering the mortality caused by disasters. However, alleviating the long-term effects remains a challenge for future research and policy making.

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