Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management

Each year, hundreds of thousands of students earn an industry recognized credential in high school, often as the culmination of a CTE pathway. These come at no small cost to school districts, who must identify and pay for thousands of tests, nor to the students who study for them. What value do they have? We answer this using administrative data from Michigan on tens of thousands of students across several industry recognized exams over several years. Using a discontinuity analysis, we ask whether earning a credential affects high school graduation, college enrollment and completion, and early labor market outcomes. Predicted impacts are ambiguous. First order effects might increase potential wages, increasing the opportunity cost of college, lowering enrollment. Conversely, they might serve as a stepping stone to a college degree, increasing enrollment and graduation. Our empirical exercises attempt to uncover these mechanisms and to observe heterogeneity across fields and industries.